Australia’s conservative Coalition has recorded its worst polling results in nearly four decades, as One Nation reaches unprecedented popularity and Opposition Leader Sussan Ley faces mounting internal pressure to maintain her leadership.
According to the latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian, support for the Coalition has collapsed to 24 per cent, its lowest level since Newspoll began measuring primary votes in 1985. Ley’s personal approval has also fallen sharply, with just 25 per cent of voters satisfied and 58 per cent dissatisfied, leaving her with a net approval rating of minus 33 — a figure worse than her predecessor Peter Dutton’s worst result of minus 24.
Political historians note that Ley’s unpopularity now rivals that of past struggling opposition leaders such as Alexander Downer (minus 49 in 1994) and Bill Shorten (minus 38 in 2015).
Since taking over from Dutton, Ley has seen the Coalition’s primary vote drop from 31.8 per cent at the last election to 27 per cent in September, marking a continuing erosion of the party’s support base. The combined support for both major parties — Labor and Coalition — has now fallen to just 60 per cent, the lowest on record, as Australians increasingly turn to minor parties and independents.
In contrast, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has retained a significant advantage, leading Ley 54 to 27 per cent as preferred Prime Minister. Labor remains ahead 57–43 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, even as Albanese records his first net negative satisfaction score since the 2022 election.
The poll also revealed a dramatic rise in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has climbed from 11 to 15 per cent, its highest primary vote in history and surpassing its 1998 peak. The surge has come amid growing voter frustration with major party politics, immigration debates, and internal disunity within the Coalition.
The Greens, meanwhile, fell slightly to 11 per cent.
The latest poll comes after a turbulent few weeks for the Opposition, following the resignations of high-profile Coalition MPs Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Andrew Hastie, and Barnaby Joyce. Internal divisions over net zero, climate policy, and migration have further destabilised Ley’s leadership, while tensions continue over whether to support calls for Kevin Rudd’s removal as ambassador to the U.S.
Ley, however, is expected to hold her position until the May 2026 budget, when she is scheduled to deliver her first budget-reply speech. Sources within the Liberal Party told The Australian that she is now preparing to set out a clearer policy direction, including the possibility of splitting from the Nationals, after the junior Coalition partner announced its decision to abandon support for net zero emissions targets.
With the next federal election due in 2027, analysts say the latest figures are a serious warning for the conservative camp, suggesting that the Coalition risks becoming increasingly irrelevant unless it can reconnect with disillusioned voters.
