Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged dramatically, with new polling showing the minor party drawing voters away from both Labor and the Coalition amid growing concern over immigration levels, crime and social cohesion.
A Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,050 voters, conducted between 16 and 18 January 2026, found One Nation’s primary vote has risen by 13 percentage points since the last federal election to 19 per cent, placing it ahead of the Coalition and marking one of the strongest results in the party’s history. The party recorded a net favourability rating of +4 per cent, while its leader Pauline Hanson registered +6 per cent, outperforming both major party leaders.
By contrast, Labor’s primary vote fell by two percentage points, while the Coalition dropped by four points, highlighting deepening voter dissatisfaction with the political mainstream. Labor’s overall net favourability rating now sits at –1 per cent, while the Coalition holds a marginally positive +2 per cent.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remains the preferred leader for 45 per cent of voters, compared with 32 per cent who nominated Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, though both leaders recorded negative net favourability ratings of –9 per cent and –5 per cent respectively.
The poll shows that voter anxiety is being driven primarily by crime and immigration. Nearly one in three voters (around 33 per cent) identified crime and social order as a major concern, while 27 per cent nominated immigration and asylum policy. Around two-thirds of voters believe Australia’s current migration intake is too high, including more than half of Labor and Coalition voters.
Support for tougher migration controls is widespread. Approximately 75 per cent of respondents back a temporary cap on migration until housing and infrastructure pressures ease, while 81 per cent support stricter character tests and background checks for visa applicants.
Views on migration diverge sharply along party lines. More than 50 per cent of Labor and Greens voters believe migration benefits the economy, while 65 per cent of One Nation voters say it worsens economic conditions. Coalition voters are split, with 41 per cent saying migration improves the economy and 42 per cent saying it worsens it.
Freshwater Strategy head of research Jordan Meyers said the government’s handling of immigration and crime has failed to reassure voters, while One Nation has benefited from heightened public anxiety following the Bondi terror massacre late last year.
Despite One Nation’s rise, the poll shows the cost of living remains the dominant national issue, cited by 66 per cent of voters. More than 53 per cent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 44 per cent expect the economy to worsen over the next 12 months.
Analysts warn that unless Labor and the Coalition regain voter trust, One Nation could continue to expand its support base by drawing disillusioned voters from both sides of politics.
