As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reaches the halfway mark of his six-day state visit to China this Wednesday, his diplomatic balancing act is becoming clearer. While media coverage has focused on trade wins and warm public welcomes, the deeper, more sensitive issues — particularly defence — remain unresolved and ever-present.
The significance of this trip cannot be overstated. This is not just a goodwill mission; it’s a test of how Australia engages with an increasingly assertive China. While smiles and handshakes make headlines, real tension lingers just beneath the surface.
In the past year, China has grown more militarily aggressive. It has test-fired a nuclear-capable missile, shadowed Australian aircraft, and carried out live-fire drills around the Pacific, including near Australia. Its nuclear arsenal is growing rapidly, prompting concerns in Canberra about regional stability. Meanwhile, Chinese warships have recently circumnavigated Australia in a move widely seen as symbolic, if not provocative.
Australia is responding with increased military spending and its commitment to AUKUS. But critics argue that most of this is long-term investment, leaving the country underprepared for near-term threats. Some analysts predict that a regional conflict could arise as early as 2027.
So far on this trip, Albanese has stayed firm. He has reiterated Australia’s right to pursue its national interest, especially in defence. At the same time, he has maintained open lines of communication with Beijing. It’s a delicate strategy, but one that seems to be holding — at least for now.
Trade remains the strongest area of cooperation. With major tariffs lifted, Australian goods like barley and wine are flowing freely back into Chinese markets. But even this relationship carries strategic weight. China still dominates global supply chains for critical minerals, while Australia is just beginning to compete in that space.
There are also looming discussions about human rights and strategic infrastructure. Albanese has been urged to raise concerns about China’s treatment of Uighur minorities and to clarify Labor’s stance on the controversial 99-year lease of Darwin Port to a Chinese company.
By midweek, it’s clear Albanese’s trip is not just about boosting exports. It’s a diplomatic stress test, unfolding in real time. He must show strength without confrontation and openness without compromise.
If he manages to walk that line through to the end of the trip, Australia may emerge with more than stronger trade ties — it may reinforce its role as a stable, strategic player in an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific.
