Victoria’s Labor government under Premier Jacinta Allan has extended its lead over the Coalition, as voters increasingly turn to independents and minor parties. Exclusive Redbridge polling for the Herald Sun (September 3-11, 2,005 respondents) shows the Coalition’s primary vote dropping to 37%, down six points since Brad Battin became opposition leader in December. Labor’s primary vote also fell one point to 32%.
Preference flows favor Labor despite “soft” support
Despite a lower primary vote than in 2022 (37%), Labor’s two-party preferred margin has widened to 52-48, up from July’s 51.5-48.5. But only 50% of Labor supporters are considered “solid,” compared to 63% for the Coalition—leaving Allan vulnerable if a compelling alternative emerges.
Battin’s crime focus draws criticism
Battin’s $100 million youth crime prevention package and proposed police search powers have drawn internal criticism for overemphasizing crime while neglecting the economy, health system failures, soaring debt projected at $194 billion by 2028-29, and infrastructure blowouts. Party strategists warn this focus risks alienating urban voters.
Analysts urge broader strategy
Liberal strategist Tony Barry says the Coalition must present a values-based economic narrative to compete. Redbridge’s Kos Samaras warns that framing the contest as a referendum on Labor, without offering a clear alternative, echoes mistakes seen in federal politics. Labor remains weakest in regional areas and among financially stressed voters, while the Coalition leads among over-50s but trails significantly with younger Victorians.
