As geopolitical tensions intensify in the Indo-Pacific, Australia’s ability to shape outcomes in its immediate neighbourhood is under growing scrutiny. Reports that Russia may have approached Indonesia to host long-range aircraft just 1,300 kilometres from Australia’s northern coast – even if denied – have sparked debate on whether Canberra is doing enough to secure its regional standing.
While both Russian and Indonesian officials have dismissed claims about a potential Russian airbase on Biak Island, the very notion has triggered alarm in Australia’s strategic circles. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was quick to downplay the opposition’s calls for a national security briefing on the issue, mocking the suggestion by comparing it to conspiracy theories about the moon landing.
However, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton accused the Prime Minister of “ducking and weaving,” questioning why the government would avoid giving clear answers. “What are they trying to hide?” he asked, calling for more transparency in matters that concern national security.
Security analyst Dr. John Blaxland, of the Australian National University, emphasized that regional influence extends far beyond traditional military power. “We’re being outplayed — not just by China, but increasingly by Russia,” he warned. According to him, Australia must invest more in its “grey zone” capabilities — those that include foreign aid, economic partnerships, and diplomatic engagement.
Behind-the-scenes diplomacy with Indonesia is ongoing, but some experts believe Australia’s current approach lacks sophistication. “We can’t dictate to our neighbours,” Blaxland stressed. “We need deeper, more strategic partnerships — not reactive posturing.”
At the same time, the Russian ambassador to Indonesia, Sergei Tolchenov, accused both major Australian parties of anti-Russian rhetoric during the election campaign, claiming that Moscow’s actions were misrepresented and not intended to threaten regional stability.
While the Albanese government maintains that the reports of a Russian base are unsubstantiated, its reluctance to clarify whether such a request was ever made has raised eyebrows. Critics argue that transparency should not be optional in an increasingly contested region.
Australia finds itself at a crossroads — between upholding longstanding alliances and responding dynamically to the expanding interests of powers like China and Russia. Whether Canberra chooses to lead with clarity and initiative may well define its strategic relevance in the region over the coming years.
