This might be the most compelling and influential argument against AUKUS, particularly because it comes from one of Australia’s foremost strategic thinkers: Hugh White, the inaugural Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Australian Department of Defence.
Here are his key points:
White asserts that the era of Anglo-Saxon (British and American) dominance in the Western Pacific is coming to an end. He states, “We are facing one of the, perhaps the biggest transformations in our shared international setting since European settlement.” This shift is largely driven by China’s rise as an economic and military power comparable to the United States.
Consequently, White argues that there’s no alternative but to treat China as an equal partner. He states, “Nobody really knows what America’s aim in Asia is. But one thing’s for sure, nobody in Washington thinks they should treat China as an equal partner. My basic argument to my many friends in Washington is that if they don’t treat China as an equal partner, then they’re going to be taking on a rivalry with China that I don’t think they can win.”
He emphasizes this point repeatedly, arguing that given China’s economic and military power, especially in the Western Pacific, the U.S. cannot maintain its previous position of uncontested primacy: “I don’t see how, in an era where China’s economy is as big as America’s, in an era where its military power in the West Pacific is really quite comparable to America’s, in an era where China is increasingly potent as a nuclear-armed power, the US and China can find a way to get on in which the United States doesn’t, at the very least, treat China as an equal partner.”
White views AUKUS as problematic because it aligns Australia (and potentially New Zealand) with a U.S. strategy that refuses to acknowledge this new reality. He argues that by supporting AUKUS, these countries are effectively endorsing a primacy approach that is “not a smart way to go” and risks destroying both their prosperity and security, as they will “only be prosperous and secure if the United States and China can find a way to get on.”
On the economic benefits arguably brought by AUKUS, White says, “The idea that you buy those economic benefits at the price of committing yourself to support an approach to this really fundamental question about the shape of our future order in Asia, which I don’t think is going to work, that would be a very high price to pay for a very doubtful benefit.”
