China will destroy US military in fight over Taiwan, according to a leaked top-secret document from the United States Department of Defense known as the “Overmatch Brief.” The report warns that if war erupts between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States over Taiwan, Beijing would likely win — due to its ability to mass-produce cheaper yet highly lethal weapons systems that could overwhelm America’s more advanced but limited arsenal.
According to the brief, in war-games simulating a conflict over Taiwan the US “loses every time,” often early, as Chinese forces—using missile saturation tactics—destroy American aircraft carriers, destroyers, and advanced jets within hours. Even the most expensive and advanced US carriers, such as the USS Gerald R. Ford, are shown highly vulnerable.
Hypersonic threats and mass-production advantage
China’s growing arsenal of hypersonic and ballistic anti-ship missiles — including variants reportedly capable of striking moving targets at sea — poses a major threat to US naval power. Some analysts now suggest these missiles could sink an aircraft carrier in minutes, effectively undermining decades of US strategy relying on “carrier strike groups.”
At the same time, the US defence industry struggles to keep pace. Long acquisition cycles, bureaucratic procurement procedures, and industrial decline mean the US cannot match China’s pace of weapon production. Recent conflicts — for example in Ukraine — have demonstrated the effectiveness of cheaper, asymmetric weapons such as drones, but the Pentagon appears slow to pivot away from high-cost platforms.
Defense experts warn that, in a prolonged war, the United States could exhaust key stocks of long-range missiles and interceptors in just a week, exposing a critical chokepoint in its war-fighting capacity.
Naval modernisation lag and strategic implications
For decades, US defence strategy has hinged on advanced aircraft carriers, stealth jets and missile defence systems. Yet China’s decades-long naval build-up — including modern destroyers, submarines, missile batteries, and anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities — is now eroding that advantage.
Moreover, the Overmatch Brief suggests that Chinese strategies would target not just frontline units, but also US logistics, supply lines, satellite networks, and bases — aiming to systematically cripple American ability to project power across the Pacific.
Beyond Taiwan: a new strategic reality
While Taiwan remains the likely flashpoint, the implications extend far beyond. A credible Chinese victory would shake the global strategic order, undermine decades of US naval dominance, and embolden Beijing to expand its influence across the Indo-Pacific. Allies such as Australia and Japan — both mentioned in recent Pentagon requests for clarity on their roles in a potential conflict — may find themselves drawn in.
Additionally, attempts to salvage US defence leverage through new warships or carrier production seem increasingly inadequate. Despite plans for additional Ford-class carriers, the new vessels may still be sitting ducks in a saturated missile environment — and rebuilding naval capacity takes years, not weeks.
Conclusion: Cold War-era power projection is no longer enough
The Overmatch Brief paints a stark picture: in a conflict over Taiwan, US technological superiority may count for little against a flood of affordable, modern missiles and asymmetric warfare tactics. The dominance once enjoyed by aircraft carriers and expensive weapon platforms is fading. To remain relevant, Washington may need fundamental defence restructuring, faster procurement, and investment in cheaper, resilient, and flexible systems.
For now, military planners must ask: Can the United States win not by weapons — but by production, adaptability and strategic realism? The answers coming from the Pentagon are troubling.
