Serious concerns have emerged about whether Victoria’s youth justice system can withstand the state government’s sweeping crackdown on youth crime, as new data reveals a severe shortage of detention beds and an alarming cohort of repeat young offenders driving violent incidents.
The Allan government is preparing to introduce its “Adult Time for Violent Crime” reforms—laws that will see children as young as 14 who commit serious violent offences treated as adults and face sentences of up to 25 years for aggravated home invasions and 20 years for machete-related attacks.
But the capacity of the youth detention system appears woefully inadequate to absorb the expected surge in young offenders who may be jailed or remanded under the changes.
Only 81 beds available for more than 1000 repeat offenders
Victoria’s youth detention network has capacity for 256 beds. Youth Justice Minister Enver Erdogan insists this provides “significant headroom”. However, 175 of those beds are already occupied, leaving only 81 spaces available—despite more than 1,128 repeat youth offenders responsible for 60 per cent of home invasions across the state.
The group, aged between 10 and 17, was arrested more than 7,000 times in the year to June. While some are already in custody and younger offenders fall below the reforms’ age threshold, even if just 10 per cent of this group receives a custodial sentence, Victoria’s remaining beds would be filled almost immediately.
Opposition MPs say the numbers expose what they call a decade of capacity cuts under Labor.
Opposition warns of a system near “breaking point”
Shadow Police Minister David Southwick criticised the government for overseeing an escalating crisis.
“Labor claims there is ‘significant headroom’, but with only 81 beds and more than a thousand repeat violent offenders on the streets, the maths simply does not add up,” he said.
“Labor has spent a decade cutting capacity—closing three prisons and removing more than 1400 correctional beds. That’s why police are babysitting offenders in cells instead of patrolling our streets.”
Southwick warned that unless the state urgently expands its detention network, Victoria could be left “more vulnerable” as police struggle to manage high-risk young offenders.
Government scrambles to boost capacity
Facing mounting criticism, the Allan government recently reversed its decision to close the Malmsbury Youth Justice Centre. The facility will now reopen in early 2026, adding 30 additional beds, though experts argue this will not be enough to meet rising demand.
A Victorian government spokesperson defended the reforms, insisting that the system has the capacity to handle “expected continued growth” in remand and custodial numbers.
“There are too many victims and not enough consequences,” the spokesperson said. “Our Adult Time for Violent Crime reforms, combined with our strengthened bail laws, are already increasing remand rates and ensuring serious offenders are held accountable.”
A system under mounting pressure
The debate has reignited broader concerns about Victoria’s justice infrastructure and the mounting costs of overcrowded police cells, strained court systems, and rising crime rates. As the state navigates its toughest youth crime reforms in decades, the question remains whether the system can withstand the pressure—or whether it is edging toward collapse.
