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Geopolitical shift in Aegean-Eastern Mediterranean against Greece
Geopolitical shift in Aegean-Eastern Mediterranean against Greece

Geopolitical shift in Aegean-Eastern Mediterranean against Greece

31 August, 2024

Recent reports from Ankara, state media outlets highlight a significant revival in US-Turkey relations, with the Turkish Air Force set to acquire fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, signaling a dramatic geopolitical shift in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean against Greece.

The Turkish program includes the acquisition of 40 F-35A jets from the US for the Air Force and several F-35B short-takeoff and landing variants designed for ships like the Turkish carrier Anadolu, which will soon become a fully operational aircraft carrier.

Coupled with the newly approved Turkish-Libyan military cooperation agreement, this development suggests the possibility of a permanent Turkish naval squadron in Tripoli, potentially including the Anadolu, adding to Greece’s strategic encirclement.

This shift was underscored by recent joint exercises between the Turkish helicopter carrier Anadolu and the US amphibious assault ship Wasp, conducted in secrecy southeast of Crete from August 13 to 17.

These developments challenge the Greek narrative of deterrent power and the “Mitsotakis doctrine,” which posited that Greece’s role as a predictable ally was an advantage. In contrast, Turkey’s more dynamic approach appears to have paid off, as evidenced by comments from outgoing US Ambassador to Turkey Jeffrey Flake, who emphasised Turkey’s growing importance as a regional power and an indispensable NATO ally.

Flake’s statements suggest that those who believed Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s pivot to Asia and neo-Ottoman ambitions had distanced him from the US were mistaken. The sense of betrayal by Greece’s allies is palpable, raising questions about Greece’s own strategic decisions during the period of US-Turkey disengagement.

As the US-Turkey rapprochement unfolds, Greece faces the reality that Turkish lobbies in Washington have outmaneuvered it. With Senator Robert Menendez, a key advocate for Greek interests, now sidelined, Turkey is poised to acquire F-35 fighter jets before Greece, reversing the narrative of Greek air superiority. Ankara’s willingness to place its Russian S-400 systems under US control paves the way for the resumption of F-35 deliveries, leaving Greece at a disadvantage.

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