One of the first things that history teaches us is that it repeats itself. And one of the first things that experience (must) teach us is that anyone who repeatedly makes the same mistakes will eventually realize that he has nothing left to lose since he has already lost everything.
Public opinion in Greece has been informed in recent weeks by the domestic media that the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electricity interconnection project will be restarted immediately and will go ahead – and that this will happen within the leaked month of April.
These public and official proclamations of the Greek Government were certainly encouraged by the entry of the American company Chevron into the ‘energy game’ in the area of our maritime jurisdiction, the pressure from the French company Nexans, which has undertaken the project of constructing the electrical interconnection cable, but certainly also by the (at least presumed) strong support and encouragement from the Israeli Government.
It stands to reason, therefore, that Athens is entitled and has a right to expect political support from the US (because of Chevron), political and on-the-spot support from France (because of Nexans), and perhaps political and on-the-spot support from Israel.
Equally reasonably, however, Athens ought and ought to expect a strong reaction from Turkey, which will certainly not be exhausted at the political/diplomatic level, but will also manifest itself on the ground.
The very recent past with the events in Kassos leave no room, based on common sense and experience, for different assessments of how Ankara will react to a possible resumption of the cable laying process by Greece in the region, which, based on International Law and the Law of the Sea, constitutes beyond any doubt an area of Greek maritime jurisdiction, but which has been illegally and unilaterally demarcated by Turkey as an area of its own maritime jurisdiction.
In accordance with its standard practice, Ankara will immediately deploy powerful naval forces to the area and attempt to impose its unreasonable and illegal demands on Athens, accusing it of ‘maximalism and provocativeness’.
Irreversible defeat
If Ankara succeeds in doing so directly or indirectly (i.e. if Athens cancels/postpones the work again or if it in any way requests Ankara’s consent/permission for the execution of the project), then Greece will have suffered an incalculable and irreversible defeat, since Turkey will have imposed on us (officially and before the international community) the logic of the irrational and the law of the unjust
In such a case, the illegal ‘Turcolibian Memorandum’ and the equally illegal and absurd doctrine of the ‘Blue Homeland’ will constitute the new tragic reality for Greece, which will remain unchanged until Turkey takes further revisionist steps against us.
Key questions
These facts raise several key questions, for which Athens ought to have ready and convincing answers before proceeding with the official statements of the previous period
How determined is Athens to defend, wherever, whenever and however required, our rights under international law and the Law of the Sea in the disputed areas?
If indeed Athens is absolutely determined to do so, to what extent does the execution of its decision depend on the ‘approval’ and/or assistance of foreign actors (USA, France, Israel)?
If in fact the degree of Greece’s dependence on foreign actors is significant, how strong (and irrevocable) assurances has Athens received about the attitude that these foreign actors will demonstrate if it is ultimately required that Ankara should receive a clear message on the ground that its predatory behaviour towards Greece and the Republic of Cyprus can no longer be tolerated either by Greece or by the international community?
If Athens at this juncture is not determined to enforce its rights under International Law and the Law of the Sea, why is it once again giving Ankara the opportunity to make a safe show of force and implement its revisionist plans against us (sharing or ‘co-exploitation of the Aegean’, de facto enforcement of the illegal ‘Turcolibian Memorandum’, consolidation of the doctrine of the ‘Blue Homeland’, etc. etc.)?
To these questions could certainly be added many more and equally crucial ones. The point is, of course, that such questions can only be answered convincingly when, where and how they should be…
The fact that, first of all, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus is not accidental and irrelevant to Ankara’s intentions and plans in this regard should be considered as a coincidence. and subsequently the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that ‘the execution of challenging projects, such as the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electrical interconnection, is not possible without the approval of Turkey since they are planned to pass through areas of Turkey’s maritime jurisdiction without its consent’.
Indeed, to avoid misunderstandings – and apparently to activate to the maximum extent possible the alleged phobic syndrome of Athens by Ankara – the same sources were quick to state that “there is no change in Turkey’s attitude towards such behaviour, which does not respect its rights and interests. Turkey will continue to do what it has done in the past.”
Moreover, the state (and parastatal) apparatus of Ankara, through the Turkish press, is bringing back to the forefront, and with great intensity, all of Turkey’s illegal and unreasonable claims and demands against Greece, and they talk about ‘Turkish islands, islets and rocky islets occupied by Greece in the Aegean’, about the ‘illegal militarization of Aegean islands’, etc.
It should be noted, both by the Greek Public Opinion and of course by the Greek political system, that the Turkish opposition of Turkey participates in this nationalistic and revisionist delirium of the Turkish political-military establishment, and even with maximum intensity…
With these facts, every sober and sensitive Greek citizen is seriously concerned when Fr. e.g. the former US Ambassador J. Pyatt at the 10th Delphi Economic Forum states that he sees ‘much more potential for wider regional energy cooperation between Greece and Turkey’.
Likewise, every sober and sensitive Greek citizen is also seriously concerned when the immediate resumption of the laying of the disputed cable is announced by official Greek governmental authorities, suddenly the question of assessing ‘the friction that could be created’ with Ankara arises and the dimension of ‘multifactorial timing’ is invoked for the resumption of the laying work, as if the very recent statements by Athens on this very issue had been made by the institutional lips of other states.
What remains to be seen is whether Athens will accept Ankara’s well-known, tried and tested ‘safe gun policy’ or whether it will make it clear to Ankara (and to those who may be playing behind the scenes games against Greece) that the facts and times are changing…
For the latter to happen, of course, Athens itself must have changed. And such a change, in a constantly changing international environment, is absolutely imperative.
- Konstantinos Paidas
Professor at the University of Athens, Greece
