Israeli fighter jets launched an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on Monday, resulting in the deaths of more than a dozen individuals. This action, seen as a provocative move against Iran and Syria, suggests Israel’s intentions to escalate tensions directly with Iran. Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian Consulate and the geopolitical chessboard, and the consequences of these strikes.
While this attack is indeed a significant provocation, it mirrors past actions by Western powers. Some may remember the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by the US, which drew similar outrage.
The growing alignment between Iran and major powers like Russia and China has long been a concern for Israeli and American foreign policy experts, dating back to Brzezinski’s warning in 1997. The West’s apprehension about an aligned Iran-Russia-China bloc has escalated, particularly with Russia becoming less susceptible to sanctions.
American foreign policy circles have been alarmed by the perceived threat this alignment poses to US hegemony. As a response, there has been a series of provocations against Iran, starting arguably with the assassination of Soleimani in 2020, followed by a Color Revolution attempt in 2022, the Jan 2024 attack in Kerman by “ISIS-K,” and most recently, the airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Israel’s airstrike on the Iranian Consulate and the geopolitical consequences behind these provocations seem to be twofold. Firstly, to goad Iran into an overreaction, which could then be used to isolate them further and increase the political costs for China and Russia to support Iran during escalations. Secondly, there might be hope for a repeat of the global outcry that followed the downing of a civilian airliner by an IRGC missile in 2020.
Iran is expected to respond to this latest provocation, as it has in the past, likely with a measured approach to avoid further escalation. However, there’s a possibility Iran might bypass Israel and retaliate directly against US forces in the region, signaling their recognition of who holds the reins.
Throughout the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, Western analysts consistently overestimated Russia’s vulnerability, underestimating its strategic patience and resolve. It seems this mistake is being repeated. Russia’s patient approach has been effective against a floundering West.
Ultimately, for Western hegemony to endure, it must reassert itself and subdue the emerging powers. Conversely, those emerging powers must continue their current trajectory. Iran, understanding this dynamic well, will likely navigate these provocations with caution.
