Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has strengthened her position as Victorians’ clear preferred premier, while simultaneously unveiling a reshaped “winning team” shadow cabinet aimed at projecting unity and readiness for government one year out from the 2026 state election.
Fresh polling from Freshwater Strategy shows Wilson holding a commanding 16-point lead over Premier Jacinta Allan—47% to 31%—a sharp improvement from the 11-point margin held by former leader Brad Battin prior to being ousted in a party-room coup. The research also reveals deeply entrenched dissatisfaction with the Allan government: 56% of voters believe Victoria is heading in the wrong direction, while 58% say the government is performing poorly.
Wilson’s leadership attributes resonated strongly with voters, who see her as bringing a “fresh generation” of political leadership, improved communication, and a stronger appeal to undecided voters. Notably, 22% of non-Coalition voters, including 25% of Greens and 21% of Labor voters, said they were now more likely to vote Liberal. Wilson currently holds a net approval rating of +15, in stark contrast to Allan’s net favourability of -32, which Labor insiders fear will drag the party’s overall vote down.
The Coalition sits at 37% primary vote compared to Labor’s 30%, producing a 50–50 two-party preferred split. To win government, the Coalition must gain 16 seats without losing any of its current holdings—requiring roughly an 8% statewide swing.
Amid this favourable backdrop, Wilson announced her revamped shadow cabinet. In a gesture of internal reconciliation, former leader Brad Battin—whom Wilson deposed—has been handed the police and corrections portfolio, drawing on his background as a police officer. Meanwhile, former leader John Pesutto remains on the backbench amid an unresolved Supreme Court battle over a $1.55m party loan.
Key changes include:
- Brad Rowswell promoted to shadow education minister after being previously demoted.
- Renee Heath elevated to youth justice, crime prevention, victim support, and bay protection.
- Nicole Werner promoted to home ownership and housing affordability, a signature Wilson policy area.
- Matthew Guy shifted to public transport and ports.
- David Southwick moved to planning and housing and building.
- James Newbury remains shadow attorney-general and becomes shadow special minister of state.
- Georgie Crozier continues as shadow health minister.
Wilson retains the shadow treasurer portfolio, arguing she is the “best person” to restore financial discipline as state debt heads toward $194 billion by 2028–29. She pledged to rein in debt, fix the crime crisis, improve health services, support police recruitment, and restore home-ownership opportunities.
On the same day, Premier Jacinta Allan rallied Labor supporters in Melbourne, attacking Wilson’s fiscal plans and accusing the Liberals of preparing cuts to health and education. Allan framed the Metro Tunnel opening as proof Labor “delivers what the Liberals said was impossible,” while Deputy Premier Ben Carroll warned that Wilson’s cost-cutting agenda would harm Victorian families.
With pessimism about state finances rising, an unpopular Premier, and a government seen to be underperforming, analysts say Wilson enters 2026 with political momentum “most opposition leaders can only dream of.” As Wilson put it: “Victoria is at a crossroads. After 11 years of Labor, it’s time to restore hope.”
