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Megaquake warning issued for Nankai Trough in Japan

9 August, 2024

A powerful earthquake struck off Japan’s southern coast on Thursday, causing minor injuries and prompting concerns about future major quakes, particularly from the Nankai Trough. The quake, which registered a magnitude of 7.1, was centered in waters off the eastern coast of Kyushu, Japan’s southern main island, at a depth of approximately 30 kilometers. The hardest-hit areas included Nichinan city and surrounding regions in Miyazaki prefecture.

Although the earthquake caused no significant damage, nine people sustained mostly minor injuries, primarily from falls or being struck by objects. In response to the quake, a tsunami advisory was issued, with waves of up to 50 centimeters detected along parts of Kyushu’s southern coast and the nearby island of Shikoku. The tsunami advisory was gradually lifted over several hours.

In the aftermath of the quake, seismologists at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) held an emergency meeting to assess the potential impact on the Nankai Trough, a known source of devastating earthquakes. The experts concluded that the likelihood of a major earthquake in the region between Kyushu and central Japan is now higher than previously estimated. The Nankai Trough, which spans approximately 500 kilometers, has a 70-80% chance of generating a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake within the next 30 years. While this latest quake increases that probability, the exact timing and location of such an event remain unpredictable.

University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata, a member of the expert panel, advised residents along the Nankai Trough to review their earthquake preparedness. He emphasized that although there is no imminent danger of a major quake, it is crucial to remain vigilant, particularly in the week following the recent tremor. Strong aftershocks are possible, and residents should stay cautious.

In response to the earthquake, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that the government crisis management team would intensify disaster preparedness efforts. He urged residents to stay informed through official channels and avoid spreading misinformation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi also noted that authorities were assessing the situation for any serious injuries or damage, although none were immediately reported. He echoed the call for residents to avoid the coastline and remain alert.

The quake also led to some disruptions in local infrastructure. Windows at Miyazaki Airport, near the epicenter, were shattered, and the runway was temporarily closed for safety inspections. Kyushu’s “shinkansen” super-express trains were briefly halted for checks but soon resumed normal operations. However, some local train services in the affected areas were suspended through Friday.

Despite the earthquake, the Nuclear Regulation Authority confirmed that all 12 nuclear reactors on Kyushu and Shikoku, including three currently in operation, remained safe. This assurance is particularly significant in Japan, where earthquakes near nuclear power plants have been a major concern since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami.

Japan, located on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” is one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries. The country has experienced numerous significant earthquakes in its history, including a recent one on January 1 in the north-central Noto region, which resulted in over 240 fatalities. The frequent seismic activity highlights the importance of constant vigilance and preparedness for residents and authorities alike.

In summary, while Thursday’s earthquake off southern Japan caused only minor injuries and limited damage, it has heightened concerns about future seismic activity, particularly in relation to the Nankai Trough. Japanese authorities and seismologists are urging continued caution and preparedness in the face of the ongoing threat of major earthquakes or megaquakes in this seismically active region.

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