Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has more than doubled since the federal election, placing the right-wing party ahead of the Greens in primary vote intentions, according to new polling. The Guardian Essential poll, released Wednesday, shows One Nation with 13 per cent support, up from 6.4 per cent at the May election, while the Greens are at 11 per cent.
The rise comes amid a historic collapse of the federal Coalition under Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, whose primary vote fell to a record-low 27 per cent, widening Labor’s two-party-preferred margin to 58-42. Ley’s personal approval rating has slipped into negative territory, with only one in three voters approving of her performance. Analysts suggest that internal divisions over migration, climate policy, and net zero commitments, along with the controversial sacking of Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, have contributed to voter defection to minor parties.
Polling also highlights public concern over Australia’s immigration program. The Guardian Essential survey found 53 per cent of respondents believe the permanent migration cap of 185,000 for 2025–26 is too high, while only 8 per cent consider it too low. Net overseas migration in the year to March fell to 315,900, down from a post-Covid peak of 493,800. Despite this, anti-immigration sentiment remains a potent political issue, with recent “March for Australia” rallies attracting both supporters and controversy over extremist participation.
One Nation, long critical of high migration rates, has capitalized on these concerns, doubling its Senate representation to four seats at the May election. Its leader, Pauline Hanson, has positioned the party as a vocal opponent of Australia’s current immigration levels, resonating with voters anxious about social cohesion and cultural change.
Meanwhile, the Albanese government’s climate agenda also features prominently in voter calculations. Labor recently unveiled a 2035 emissions reduction target of 62–70 per cent, a policy rejected by Ley as economically destructive and criticized by the Greens as insufficient. Polling indicates strong public backing for Labor’s climate target, with 48 per cent calling it appropriate and 39 per cent labeling it ambitious.
The polling underscores a period of political volatility, marked by rising support for populist minor parties and a weakened Coalition struggling to retain voter confidence. One Nation’s surge highlights the continuing political potency of migration debates and social concerns in shaping Australia’s electoral landscape.
