The scientific community is seriously considering the use of a nuclear weapon to intercept asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a significant chance of colliding with the Moon in 2032.
Measuring approximately 55 meters in diameter, the asteroid was first discovered in December 2024, with initial estimates suggesting a 3.1% chance of striking Earth. Given its size, a direct hit could devastate an entire city, immediately drawing global attention from both the media and governmental authorities.
Subsequent observations in February 2025 significantly reduced the asteroid’s probability of impacting Earth to just 0.28% (1 in 360). However, its likelihood of striking the Moon is estimated at around 4%. A collision of this magnitude would eject lunar regolith—the thin layer of dust and small rocks covering the Moon’s surface—dramatically increasing the number of micrometeoroids in low Earth orbit. Researchers warn this surge could be up to 1,000 times higher than normal levels, posing a serious threat to astronauts, satellites, and orbiting spacecraft.
Dealing with this asteroid is exceptionally complex. The limited time until its potential approach in 2032, combined with uncertainties regarding its precise mass and composition, makes any deflection attempt highly risky. A poorly designed mission could inadvertently redirect the asteroid toward Earth rather than away from it.
Scientists propose destroying the asteroid rather than attempting to divert it. The concept involves sending a spacecraft to deploy specialized payloads to break the asteroid into smaller fragments. If this initial mission fails, the use of a nuclear bomb detonated on or near the asteroid is also being considered. The launch window for such a mission ranges from April 2030 to April 2032, with an alternative launch for a nuclear intervention between late 2029 and late 2031.
Despite a 96% chance that the asteroid will safely pass near the Moon, asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered a unique opportunity to develop asteroid-deflection and destruction technologies. These technologies may one day be essential for protecting Earth from future space threats. The study emphasizes that preparing, researching, and developing these systems is not merely a scientific exercise but a critical step in safeguarding the planet and ensuring the continued human presence in space.
