The Liberal Party is confronting severe electoral pressure in South Australia, with new polling suggesting a dramatic shift in voter support just one month before the state election.
The latest Newspoll, conducted for The Australian, indicates that One Nation’s primary vote has risen sharply to 24 per cent, while the Liberal Party’s primary support has fallen to 14 per cent. If reflected uniformly across the state, such figures would place all 13 Liberal-held seats at risk, particularly in rural and regional electorates where margins are narrow.
The poll also shows One Nation polling ahead of the Greens, who recorded 12 per cent primary support.
Labor remains in a dominant position, with 44 per cent of the primary vote. On these numbers, Premier Peter Malinauskas appears strongly placed to secure a decisive victory at the March 21 election.
Mr Malinauskas has served as premier since 2022, when Labor defeated the Liberal government led by Steven Marshall. According to the Newspoll, he holds a 67 per cent approval rating as preferred premier, while 27 per cent of voters expressed dissatisfaction. Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn recorded 19 per cent in the preferred premier measure.
A separate statewide YouGov poll conducted for The Advertiser also indicates significant challenges for the Liberal Party. That survey placed Liberal primary support at 20 per cent, with One Nation close behind at 22 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor led the Liberals 59 per cent to 41 per cent.
Political analysts have identified South Australia as a key test case for One Nation’s electoral momentum, following a series of national polls showing increased support for the party. At the federal level, One Nation’s primary vote recently surpassed that of the Coalition during the latter stages of Sussan Ley’s tenure as opposition leader.
With the state election approaching, the polling suggests a highly volatile contest for conservative voters, while Labor appears positioned to consolidate its governing majority.
