Tsipra’s visit to Ankara: preparation of a painful compromise?

Recently there have been announcements by the Turkish National Security Council according to which not even a bird can fly in the Aegean and the South East. Mediterranean without Turkey’s approval. To defend Turkey’s interests, according to announcements, Military power will be used in every way.

The tension is being escalated by Turkey on a daily basis through verbal threats and operational actions such as illegal Navtex and dozens of arial violations – violations of the Greece’s National Airspace.
In the immediate aftermath of Mr Tsipras’ visit to Turkey, Turkey has announced the largest aeronautical exercise it has hitherto carried out under the name of Mavi Vatan, meaning “Blue Fatherland” scheduled for the 27 February to 3 March, with which it will display projection and military display. The Turkish newspaper Geni Safak has described the exercise as a preperation of war against the efforts of Greece and Cyprus for naval supremacy in the Aegean Sea and the South East Mediterranean. The term “Blue Fatherland” refers directly to the relevant terminology used by Turkey’s Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, regarding the 462,000 square kilometers described as “Turkish territory” (illegally).
Turkey has announced that it will begin searching for natural reserves in the Cypriot Exclusive Economic Zone, directly challenging the national sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. The major powers involved in the region’s energy fields would prefer to avoid tensions between the two NATO members and therefore possibly pressure the Greek side into concessions.
With regard to the Cyprus issue, one of the key issues concerning Greek-Turkish relations seems to be that the solution of the bizonal bicommunal federation is being abandoned due to Turkey’s persistence in the matter with regards the maintainenace of its interventionist right as a guarantor. Turkey’s ambition is the establishment of a two state entity.
Confidence building measures that could help reduce tension have not been possible due to Turkey’s offensive attitude.
The results of previous high level meetings do not leave room for much optimism. These meetings require excellent preparation and strategic planning for specific objectives and are not conducted in a framework courtesy visits. We do not know what the agenda of the visit is, and this is a matter of concern, as Turkey may put all its claims on the table.
The reopening of the Theological School of Halki (which may be used by Mr. Tsipras a communication tool to show a succefull concession by Turkey) is a universal demand by orthodoxy and concerns the respect for religious freedom on the part of Turkey, and not a bilateral issue as Ankara desires.
Turkey has repeatedly stated that it has linked the reopening of the Halki Theological School with rewards for the election of muftis in Thrace. Turkey wants to have in place political-religious leaders in the muslim minority, who will be subordinate to its foreign policy and thereby giving Turkey a political and strategic prescence in Greeces Thrace region.
All this suggests that Mr Tsipras’ meeting with Mr Erdogan is a rehear-sal and preparation for a painful compromise the likes of Prespes.