The rapid collapse of Syria has left many shocked, but some key factors explain how and why it happened, and where Iran stood in the crisis. Here’s Why Syria fell so quickly and where was Iran. Six months ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad about the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), but Assad chose to ignore the advice.
The Context: Iran’s Role in Syria
Iran became involved in Syria at the Syrian government’s request when ISIS posed a serious threat. Initially, Iran’s role was advisory, providing support to Syrian forces without direct combat. Over time, Iranian military presence was limited to special forces, and by 2017, ISIS was largely defeated, thanks to the efforts of Iranian General Qassem Soleiman
However, after ISIS’s defeat, Iran’s role diminished as Syria took greater responsibility for its own security. The next phase of the conflict involved a shift in the dynamics of terrorism and foreign influence.
Key Factors Behind Syria’s Quick Decline:
Transformation of Terrorist Groups
Extremist groups evolved, moving away from violent ideologies to more diplomatic postures while retaining their core goals. The influence of Saudi Arabia shifted towards Turkey, marking a change in regional power dynamics. As a result, many Syrians, particularly in cities like Aleppo, began to show less support for the Syrian Army, instead siding with rebel groups. This shift was aided by a successful hybrid warfare strategy by Syria’s enemies
Weakening of the Syrian Army
The Syrian Army (SAA) faced multiple challenges, including ideological and morale issues. Unlike the earlier period, when Iranian advisors provided crucial support to motivated Syrian forces, many SAA units collapsed at the first sign of confrontation
Bashar al-Assad’s Shift Towards Gulf Arabs
One of the most significant changes was Assad’s stance. In June 2024, Iran’s Supreme Leader warned Assad of the growing terrorist threat from Turkish-backed groups and advised him to strengthen his forces. However, Assad ignored these warnings and instead began to align himself with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), distancing himself from Iran and seeking promises of support from Arab actors. This shift proved disastrous. When the promised support from the Gulf did not materialise, Assad realised too late that he had made a strategic mistake by sidelining Iran.
Additional Points:
Iranian Diplomacy: Two weeks before the crisis escalated, Iranian envoy Ali Larijani offered Assad a set of preconditions, but Assad rejected them and even refused to meet Larijani upon his return to Damascus on December 6.
Tensions with the IRGC: Assad’s growing ties with the Gulf Arab states led to increased restrictions on Iran’s role in Syria, especially concerning the IRGC’s Quds Force, which caused discontent in Tehran.
Intelligence Failures: Iran was reportedly aware of preparations for an uprising by rebel groups in Idlib two months ago. Iranian officials reportedly warned Turkey, but the Turks assured them there was nothing to fear, leading to misplaced trust.The Road Ahead
While the immediate situation is tense, with escalating conflict between Kurdish SDF forces and Turkish-backed rebels, as well as infighting among opposition groups, the broader future of Syria remains uncertain. The fallout from Assad’s strategic missteps will likely continue to spark unrest in the region.
In summary, Syria’s downfall can be attributed to a combination of Assad’s miscalculations, weakening military resolve, and shifting alliances, with Iran playing a significant but ultimately insufficient role in preventing the collapse.
Turkey is No longer hiding its role in turning Syria into a terror state! They are proudly saying that they are currently behind the invasion of Islamists into the country! Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yılmaz just shared this video confirming this!
