Australia is projected to narrowly miss its 2030 climate target and is at serious risk of failing its 2035 target without significant policy changes, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has warned.
Speaking to Parliament in his annual climate statement, Mr Bowen said it was normal for there to be a gap between projected emissions and a long-term target. “As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves. That’s what a target is for — to drive new initiatives and work,” he said.
The Environment Department has reported that Australia is on track to reduce emissions by 42 per cent by 2030, just 1 per cent short of the legislated target. However, it warns that current projections put Australia well behind the 2035 target of a 62–70 per cent reduction, with emissions expected to fall by only 48 per cent.
While the government may fall short of its headline 2030 goal, it is expected to meet its international obligations under the Paris Agreement for this decade.
Mr Bowen highlighted that Australia has cut emissions by 28.5 per cent since 2005 and achieved a 2.2 per cent reduction in the past year alone. However, he acknowledged that meeting the 2035 target remains a major challenge.
The government is banking on additional policy measures, including reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism and faster approvals for renewable projects, to improve emissions outcomes. Greens leader Larissa Waters criticised the government, saying current projections were “nowhere near” the promised targets and called the emissions figures “diabolical.”
The debate comes shortly after the Coalition formally abandoned its net zero by 2050 commitment, claiming climate goals have driven up power prices. Mr Bowen reaffirmed Labor’s commitment to ambitious climate action and described the 2035 target as scientifically grounded and essential for future generations.
